According to Soyfert’s estimates, in the baseline scenario, Facebook’s revenue will fall by 7% in the second quarter of 2021. The optimistic scenario implies a 2% decrease in income, while the pessimistic scenario implies a 14% decrease. At the same time, it is expected that the negative impact of these changes will continue in subsequent quarters, up to the beginning of 2022, states SearchEngines.
The analyst’s calculations are based on data on the share of iOS devices in Facebook’s mobile ad revenue, the share of users who agreed to data collection (opt-in rate), as well as information about the effectiveness of advertising and price dynamics.
Meanwhile, Soifert noted that Facebook is not the only platform to suffer from these changes, although in the media it is seen as the main victim. Other ad platforms, including Google, will also be affected by the user tracking update in iOS 14. Moreover, the latter is perhaps even more vulnerable to them than Facebook.
NIX Solutions reminds that in August, Facebook warned its partners that new restrictions in iOS 14 could lead to a drop in revenue from the Audience Network by more than 50%.
And this month, the company released a detailed post on preparations for the upcoming changes to Apple’s rules and clarified what advertisers need to do.